Europe’s strategic pivot to India in an age of global uncertainty

Over the last one year, the deepening of economic and diplomatic ties between India and Europe has gained some monumental feats. The signing of the India-EU trade deal, India-UK trade deal, TEPA, along with the recent India-Nordic Summit, all signal a strategic convergence between India and Europe. More crucially, these developments came against the backdrop of a crumbling global order and shifting strategic alliances.
As it has turned out, for Europe, the traditional strategic alliances are breaking down. Up until now, Europe thrived under the security guarantees of the US. Now, with the emergence of the ‘America First’ strategy, the EU-US relations have undergone a dramatic transformation, making them transactional and rather fractured. With the gradual deterioration of the transatlantic security ties, experts believe that ‘post-America’ Europe is left to set its own strategic priorities.
For long, Europe has also been safeguarded by energy supplies from Russia, and trade interdependence with China. However, the current situation is marked by Europe facing security threats from Russia and trade tensions with China over state subsidies, overcapacity, and industrial protectionism. As a result, Europe is bound to recalibrate its economic and diplomatic priorities.
Amidst uncertainties clouding its interests, Europe’s strategy to pivot to India emerges as a much more reasonable policy move. With Europe continuously facing Chinese coercion via supply chains involving critical minerals and market access, and the US using tariffs and sanctions as instruments of strategic power, European nations find a greater merit in aligning themselves with the Global South, particularly India. This strategic move involves not using ties with India as a tool of bloc confrontation, but a broader endeavour to resist the global disorder and resulting coercion by the rival camps formed by major powers.
In the era of techno-nationalism, where semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, supply chains, and artificial intelligence are being used as geopolitical assets and instruments of power, Europe’s alignment with India, characterised by New Delhi’s diplomatic ease and growing economic and technological developments, ensures a stable and sustainable source of economic and diplomatic cooperation.
In light of Europe’s de-risking strategy vis-à-vis China, a closer EU-India relations are considered increasingly vital for strengthening economic growth and security, and diversifying supply chains. As mentioned by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, the current times are for focusing on reliable partners and doubling down on partnerships rooted in shared interests and guided by common values. Hence, the pivot to India is not just based on the current strategic pragmatism, but it stems from the historical roots, cultural parallels, and deep democratic values shared by the two.
India, with its demographic capacity, expansive industrial base, and rising importance in the global economy, provides Europe with economic opportunity as well as geopolitical relevance, with a surety of resilience in the current geo-economic landscape.
While New Delhi enjoys investment, enhanced exports, and workforce mobility via the India-Europe’s growing partnership, European economies gain from supply chain diversification, along with the strategic autonomy to hedge for a strengthened multipolar global order. Thus, in the current times of global geopolitical uncertainties, India-EU convergence is being recognised as a generational opportunity to mix European innovation and capital with the Indian scale, resilience, and adaptability.
With increasing people-to-people connect, diplomatic interactions, and mutual strategic interests, the relationship between India and Europe has evolved beyond the conversations on trade and cooperation to an active partnership on technology, security, and supply chain, as marked by the FTAs.
The scope of collaboration between the European continent and the continental-sized India is multifaceted, and various bilateral economic pacts between the two are exploiting them as well. The avenues for collaboration include, but are not limited to, digital public infrastructure, green energy, critical minerals, manufacturing, research and defence cooperation, along with trade in goods and services. Besides, given the rampant rise in geopolitical conflicts, Europe’s need to strengthen its defence posture through supply chain diversification and co-production can be met with India’s robust defence industry, with indigenous manufacturing and cost-efficiency.
Europe’s convergence with India is an act of balancing powers in a multipolar world. As the existing global order dismantles, India’s growing bilateral and multilateral ties with Europe progressively envisage the global metamorphosis to multiple power centres, with a need for re-democratisation of the global order. The ongoing convergence through FTAs is an opportunity for both stakeholders. For Europe, it is a chance to acquire a reliable and lasting ally, which is also a rising power, while for India, it involves leveraging its resources to further buttress its economic growth, and in turn, put itself forth as a dynamic, inclusive, and future-ready partner on the global stage.
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