Cement Paradox: Does Tajikistan Need New Plants Amid Excess Capacity?
Amid a shortage and sharp rise in cement prices, the authorities of Tajikistan are betting on the construction of new plants that could more than double the industry’s capacity. But the main question is whether this will solve the market problem — or if the country will once again pay for rapid industrial growth with its environment and people’s health.
Tajikistan intends to build and launch four new cement plants in the next 2–3 years. Their combined capacity is expected to be about 6 million tons of cement per year. The authorities hope that the new enterprises will double production, fully meet domestic demand, stabilize prices, and create about 5,000 jobs.
This directive was issued against the backdrop of a sharp cement shortage and rising prices in almost all regions of the country.
At first glance, the decision seems logical: if there is a shortage of cement, more needs to be produced. Especially since cement is one of the key materials for building housing, roads, schools, hospitals, industrial facilities, and other infrastructure. Any disruption in this market quickly affects construction costs and, ultimately, citizens’ wallets.
But there is a weak point in this logic.
Over the past 10-15 years, Tajikistan has already transformed from a country dependent on imported cement into a major producer and exporter. If in 2009 the country produced about 252,000 tons of cement, and a year later almost 384,000 tons, today it is already several million tons per year. The industry’s total capacity has exceeded 5 million tons per year during this time.
Yet in the spring of 2026, the market faced something that seemingly shouldn’t happen with such capacities: cement is disappearing from markets, supplies are irregular, and prices for a bag in some regions reach 80–90 somoni.
Shortage amid excess capacityIn Dushanbe, the cost of a bag of cement rose by about 40-50% in one week. On construction markets, the product appears irregularly, often only in the first half of the day, and is quickly bought up.
In the Khatlon region, sellers reported supply disruptions and price increases to 75–80 somoni per bag from major producers. In the Sughd region, prices for local and imported cement have practically equalized, and in Khorog, according to residents, there has been almost no cement for about a month.
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Tajikistan intends to build and launch four new cement plants in the next 2–3 years. Their combined capacity is expected to be about 6 million tons of cement per year. The authorities hope that the new enterprises will double production, fully meet domestic demand, stabilize prices, and create about 5,000 jobs.
This directive was issued against the backdrop of a sharp cement shortage and rising prices in almost all regions of the country.
At first glance, the decision seems logical: if there is a shortage of cement, more needs to be produced. Especially since cement is one of the key materials for building housing, roads, schools, hospitals, industrial facilities, and other infrastructure. Any disruption in this market quickly affects construction costs and, ultimately, citizens’ wallets.
But there is a weak point in this logic.
Over the past 10-15 years, Tajikistan has already transformed from a country dependent on imported cement into a major producer and exporter. If in 2009 the country produced about 252,000 tons of cement, and a year later almost 384,000 tons, today it is already several million tons per year. The industry’s total capacity has exceeded 5 million tons per year during this time.
Yet in the spring of 2026, the market faced something that seemingly shouldn’t happen with such capacities: cement is disappearing from markets, supplies are irregular, and prices for a bag in some regions reach 80–90 somoni.
Shortage amid excess capacityIn Dushanbe, the cost of a bag of cement rose by about 40-50% in one week. On construction markets, the product appears irregularly, often only in the first half of the day, and is quickly bought up.
In the Khatlon region, sellers reported supply disruptions and price increases to 75–80 somoni per bag from major producers. In the Sughd region, prices for local and imported cement have practically equalized, and in Khorog, according to residents, there has been almost no cement for about a month.
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Various reasons are cited for the shortage. Among them are repairs at certain plants, high seasonal demand, reduced regional supplies, increased exports to Afghanistan, queues at dealers and wholesale bases, weak coordination between manufacturers, intermediaries, and retail chains.At a government meeting, there was also talk of underutilized production capacities, weak market control, and unjustified price increases by certain intermediaries.
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