EBRD forecasts Tajikistan’s economy to grow by 7.9% in 2026
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts that Tajikistan’s economy will grow by 7,9% in 2026. However, by 2027, the bank estimates that growth will slow to 7%.
These figures are presented in the new EBRD report «Regional Economic Prospects,» published in June 2026.
According to the bank’s assessment, Tajikistan’s GDP grew by 8,4% in 2024. The EBRD estimates the same growth rate of 8,4% for 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, the country’s economy grew by approximately 8% year-on-year, according to the report.
Growth at the beginning of 2026 was driven by increased activity in trade, transport, and communications, as well as strong dynamics in manufacturing and increased electricity production.
Manufacturing activity increased by 29,6%, and electricity production by 7,5%. Meanwhile, the mining sector contracted by 9,8%. The EBRD also notes an increase in investments in fixed capital. In the first quarter of 2026, they increased by 34,2% year-on-year. The report states that this partially reflects significant commitments to government spending, including the Rogun Hydropower Plant project.
In terms of foreign trade, imports grew by 16,6% amid high domestic demand. According to the EBRD, exports remained almost unchanged.
Inflation in Tajikistan, according to the report, remains low. In March 2026, it was 3,4% year-on-year. Against this backdrop, the National Bank of Tajikistan lowered the rate by 0.5 percentage points to 7% in February. The report also states that Tajikistan maintained a budget surplus in 2025. This was supported by high tax revenues. Meanwhile, spending on social security and energy continued to rise.
The EBRD separately mentions the decision of the international rating agency Moody’s to upgrade Tajikistan’s sovereign credit rating by one notch to B2 with a stable outlook. According to the report, this is due to the country’s sustained economic resilience and improved public finance management.
Among the main risks for Tajikistan, the EBRD cites the economy’s dependence on Russia. The report notes that a slowdown in the Russian economy could lead to a decrease in remittances, which support household incomes in Tajikistan. An additional risk is the growing inflationary pressures related to the conflict in the Middle East.
Overall, the EBRD expects a slowdown in growth across Central Asia. After 6,9% in 2025, the region’s economy is forecast to grow by 5,6% in 2026 and 5,3% in 2027.
These figures are presented in the new EBRD report «Regional Economic Prospects,» published in June 2026.
According to the bank’s assessment, Tajikistan’s GDP grew by 8,4% in 2024. The EBRD estimates the same growth rate of 8,4% for 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, the country’s economy grew by approximately 8% year-on-year, according to the report.
Growth at the beginning of 2026 was driven by increased activity in trade, transport, and communications, as well as strong dynamics in manufacturing and increased electricity production.
Manufacturing activity increased by 29,6%, and electricity production by 7,5%. Meanwhile, the mining sector contracted by 9,8%. The EBRD also notes an increase in investments in fixed capital. In the first quarter of 2026, they increased by 34,2% year-on-year. The report states that this partially reflects significant commitments to government spending, including the Rogun Hydropower Plant project.
In terms of foreign trade, imports grew by 16,6% amid high domestic demand. According to the EBRD, exports remained almost unchanged.
Inflation in Tajikistan, according to the report, remains low. In March 2026, it was 3,4% year-on-year. Against this backdrop, the National Bank of Tajikistan lowered the rate by 0.5 percentage points to 7% in February. The report also states that Tajikistan maintained a budget surplus in 2025. This was supported by high tax revenues. Meanwhile, spending on social security and energy continued to rise.
The EBRD separately mentions the decision of the international rating agency Moody’s to upgrade Tajikistan’s sovereign credit rating by one notch to B2 with a stable outlook. According to the report, this is due to the country’s sustained economic resilience and improved public finance management.
Among the main risks for Tajikistan, the EBRD cites the economy’s dependence on Russia. The report notes that a slowdown in the Russian economy could lead to a decrease in remittances, which support household incomes in Tajikistan. An additional risk is the growing inflationary pressures related to the conflict in the Middle East.
Overall, the EBRD expects a slowdown in growth across Central Asia. After 6,9% in 2025, the region’s economy is forecast to grow by 5,6% in 2026 and 5,3% in 2027.
Комментарии (0)