EBRD forecasts Tajikistan’s economy to grow by 7.9% in 2026

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts that Tajikistan’s economy will grow by 7,9% in 2026. However, by 2027, the bank estimates that growth will slow to 7%.
These figures are presented in the new EBRD report «Regional Economic Prospects,» published in June 2026.
According to the bank’s estimates, Tajikistan’s GDP grew by 8,4% in 2024. The EBRD also estimates the same growth rate of 8,4% for 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, the country’s economy grew by approximately 8% year-on-year, according to the report.
Growth at the beginning of 2026 was driven by increased activity in trade, transport, and communications, as well as strong dynamics in manufacturing and increased electricity production.
                 The EBRD also notes an increase in capital investment. In the first quarter of 2026, it increased by 34,2% year-on-year. The report states that this partially reflects significant commitments to government spending, including the Rogun Hydropower Plant project.
In terms of foreign trade, imports grew by 16,6% amid high domestic demand. According to the EBRD, exports remained almost unchanged.
                 The report also states that Tajikistan maintained a budget surplus in 2025. This was supported by high tax revenues. Meanwhile, spending on social security and energy continued to rise.
Separately, the EBRD mentions the decision of the international rating agency Moody’s to upgrade Tajikistan’s sovereign credit rating by one notch to B2 with a stable outlook. According to the report, this is due to the country’s sustained economic resilience and improved public finance management.
                 An additional risk is the growing inflationary pressures related to the conflict in the Middle East.
Overall, the EBRD expects a slowdown in growth across Central Asia. After 6,9% in 2025, the region’s economy is forecasted by the bank to grow by 5,6% in 2026 and 5,3% in 2027.
EBRD GDP growth forecast for Central Asian countries (2026–2027)
Kazakhstan — 2026: 4,7% | 2027: 4,5%
Kyrgyzstan — 2026: 8,7% | 2027: 7,0%
Tajikistan — 2026: 7,9% | 2027: 7,0%
Turkmenistan — 2026: 6,3% | 2027: 6,3%
Uzbekistan — 2026: 6,5% | 2027: 6,0%
Average forecast for Central Asia and Mongolia
2026: 5,6%
2027: 5,3%
Source: EBRD, Regional Economic Prospects, June 2026.
The EBRD’s regional review states that the economies of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan will maintain the highest growth rates among the bank’s countries of operation in 2026 and 2027.
According to the EBRD, economic activity in Central Asia and Mongolia remained resilient at the beginning of 2026, although signs of gradual slowdown have emerged. Strong domestic consumption and investment continue to support growth. The services sector is named as one of the key drivers alongside construction and manufacturing.
Among the key risks for the region’s growth, the EBRD cites energy price volatility, supply chain disruptions, economic sanctions, and slowing growth in Russia and China.
According to EBRD forecasts, Kazakhstan’s economy will grow by 4,7% in 2026 and 4,5% in 2027. In the Kyrgyz Republic, growth is expected to be 8,7% in 2026 and 7% in 2027.
In Turkmenistan, the EBRD expects growth of 6,3% in both years. In Uzbekistan, growth is forecasted at 6,5% in 2026 and 6% in 2027.
Across all EBRD regions of operation, cumulative growth, according to the report, will slow from 3,4% in 2025 to 3,1% in 2026, and recover to 3,6% in 2027.
The forecast for 2026 was revised down by 0.5 percentage points compared to the February forecast, and the forecast for 2027 by 0.1 percentage points.
The report states that the conflict in the Middle East has led to a sharp increase in energy prices and supply chain disruptions. Average inflation in the EBRD regions rose to 6,4%. Energy and food prices are expected to keep it at an elevated level.
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