How transport emissions could bring green finance to Tajikistan
Tajikistan does not yet have a carbon tax or carbon market, but a new Asian Development Bank report says the country could use transport emissions as a source of funding for green projects, including electric buses, charging infrastructure and cleaner urban transport.
The Asian Development Bank has published a report on how countries of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation program, known as CAREC, can use carbon pricing in the transport sector.
The report says Tajikistan currently has no carbon tax or carbon market. However, the country’s strategic documents already include plans to develop such mechanisms, as well as electric transport.
Carbon pricing means turning carbon dioxide emissions into a financial cost. In simple terms, those who pollute more pay more, while projects that reduce emissions — for example, replacing diesel buses with electric ones — can attract climate financing.
These tools may include carbon taxes, emissions trading systems and carbon markets. They work differently, but have the same goal: to reduce emissions and create additional sources of funding for green projects.
Tajikistan is only preparing carbon mechanisms
According to the ADB report, most CAREC countries are still in the early stages of building carbon pricing systems.
China and Kazakhstan are more advanced. China has national and regional emissions trading systems, with transport partly included in some local schemes. Kazakhstan has had an emissions trading system since 2013, although transport is not yet covered by it.
Tajikistan is among the countries where such mechanisms are still not operational.
Transport emissions are growing rapidly
The transport sector is one of the fastest-growing sources of emissions in Tajikistan.
According to the ADB report, Tajikistan’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2022, excluding land use and forestry, amounted to about 18.7 million tons of CO₂ equivalent. Transport accounted for 2.3 million tons, or around 12% of the total.
The key issue is the pace of growth. Over the past two decades, transport emissions in Tajikistan have increased by an average of 15% per year, while the country’s overall emissions grew by about 5% per year. This means transport emissions have been rising much faster than total national emissions.
More recent data is available in the statistical compendium Environmental Protection in the Republic of Tajikistan. In 2024, mobile sources emitted 423,400 tons of carbon monoxide, 93,200 tons of hydrocarbons, 38,100 tons of nitrogen oxides, 500 tons of sulfur dioxide and7,800 tons of soot.
These figures do not refer to CO₂ emissions, but to harmful pollutants that affect air quality.
Why Tajikistan is focusing on electric transport
For Tajikistan, the ADB report identifies electric transport as one of the main directions for reducing emissions in the sector.
Unlike some other CAREC countries, where priorities also include railways, public transport, cycling infrastructure, gas and biofuels, Tajikistan places particular emphasis on electric vehicles.
One reason is the country’s relatively low-carbon electricity. According to the report, Tajikistan’s power grid has a carbon factor of 106 grams of CO₂ per kilowatt-hour.
In simple terms, producing one kilowatt-hour of electricity in Tajikistan generates, on average, 106 grams of CO₂. The lower this figure, the greater the climate benefit of switching from gasoline and diesel vehicles to electric transport.
The report also notes that Tajikistan plans to submit its updated national climate contribution, known as NDC 3.0, by December 2026.
According to ADB estimates, one urban electric bus in Tajikistan could reduce emissions by around 69 tons of CO₂ per year. An intercity electric bus could save 70 tons, a passenger electric car 4 tons, an electric taxi 8 tons, a light commercial electric vehicle for urban deliveries 10 tons, and a 40-ton electric truck up to 90 tons of CO₂ per year.
Existing fuel taxes already act like a carbon price
Tajikistan does not have a direct carbon tax. However, the ADB report recalculates existing gasoline and diesel taxes as an «implied carbon price.»
This does not mean a new tax has been introduced. Rather, it shows how much emissions already «cost» through the existing taxation or subsidization of fuel.
According to the report, Tajikistan’s implied carbon price in 2024 was 40 $ per ton of CO₂ for gasoline. For diesel, the figure was higher — 56 $ per ton of CO₂ in mid-2024.
How one cent per liter could become a climate fund
The ADB report also considers another possible mechanism: a climate cent fund.
Under this model, a small fee — for example, 0.01 $ per liter — would be charged on gasoline and diesel. The money collected would not go into the general budget, but would be directed to transport projects that reduce emissions.
For Tajikistan, the report’s authors based their calculation on 2023 fuel sales. That year, 962 million liters of gasoline and diesel were sold in the country.
According to their estimates, such a fund could help reduce transport emissions by about 0.4 million tons of CO₂ per year. This would be roughly 73% of Tajikistan’s estimated transport target under its national climate contribution, which the report puts at 0.5 million tons of CO₂.
However, the authors stress that the effect would not come from people immediately driving less because of a small increase in fuel prices. In the short term, demand for gasoline and diesel usually reacts weakly to price increases, because drivers and businesses often do not have quick alternatives.
The main purpose of such a fund would be to create a stable source of financing for specific projects: electric buses, charging stations, electric taxis, electric urban delivery vehicles and other lower-emission transport solutions.
At the same time, the idea is politically sensitive. Even a small fee could face resistance from drivers and businesses, especially transport companies, taxi drivers and others whose work depends on fuel.
That is why much would depend on transparency: how the money is spent, who manages it and whether people see practical results, such as new electric buses, better public transport or cleaner air.
Which transport projects could enter the carbon market
The ADB report also looks at international carbon market mechanisms, including Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement.
As of November 2025, Tajikistan had no projects on the preliminary list under this mechanism, including in the transport sector.
By comparison, transport projects linked to electric mobility have already been listed for China, Georgia, Pakistan and Uzbekistan.
The report identifies three of the most promising areas for carbon markets in transport: electric transport, urban public transport and railways.
Electric transport projects are generally easier to launch and verify. Emission reductions can be calculated more clearly, results can be tracked, and similar projects can be scaled up.
Public transport and railway projects can also be used in carbon markets, but they are usually more complex. They require longer preparation, larger investments and detailed monitoring.
The Asian Development Bank has published a report on how countries of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation program, known as CAREC, can use carbon pricing in the transport sector.
The report says Tajikistan currently has no carbon tax or carbon market. However, the country’s strategic documents already include plans to develop such mechanisms, as well as electric transport.
Carbon pricing means turning carbon dioxide emissions into a financial cost. In simple terms, those who pollute more pay more, while projects that reduce emissions — for example, replacing diesel buses with electric ones — can attract climate financing.
These tools may include carbon taxes, emissions trading systems and carbon markets. They work differently, but have the same goal: to reduce emissions and create additional sources of funding for green projects.
Tajikistan is only preparing carbon mechanisms
According to the ADB report, most CAREC countries are still in the early stages of building carbon pricing systems.
China and Kazakhstan are more advanced. China has national and regional emissions trading systems, with transport partly included in some local schemes. Kazakhstan has had an emissions trading system since 2013, although transport is not yet covered by it.
Tajikistan is among the countries where such mechanisms are still not operational.
Transport emissions are growing rapidly
The transport sector is one of the fastest-growing sources of emissions in Tajikistan.
According to the ADB report, Tajikistan’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2022, excluding land use and forestry, amounted to about 18.7 million tons of CO₂ equivalent. Transport accounted for 2.3 million tons, or around 12% of the total.
The key issue is the pace of growth. Over the past two decades, transport emissions in Tajikistan have increased by an average of 15% per year, while the country’s overall emissions grew by about 5% per year. This means transport emissions have been rising much faster than total national emissions.
More recent data is available in the statistical compendium Environmental Protection in the Republic of Tajikistan. In 2024, mobile sources emitted 423,400 tons of carbon monoxide, 93,200 tons of hydrocarbons, 38,100 tons of nitrogen oxides, 500 tons of sulfur dioxide and7,800 tons of soot.
These figures do not refer to CO₂ emissions, but to harmful pollutants that affect air quality.
Why Tajikistan is focusing on electric transport
For Tajikistan, the ADB report identifies electric transport as one of the main directions for reducing emissions in the sector.
Unlike some other CAREC countries, where priorities also include railways, public transport, cycling infrastructure, gas and biofuels, Tajikistan places particular emphasis on electric vehicles.
One reason is the country’s relatively low-carbon electricity. According to the report, Tajikistan’s power grid has a carbon factor of 106 grams of CO₂ per kilowatt-hour.
In simple terms, producing one kilowatt-hour of electricity in Tajikistan generates, on average, 106 grams of CO₂. The lower this figure, the greater the climate benefit of switching from gasoline and diesel vehicles to electric transport.
The report also notes that Tajikistan plans to submit its updated national climate contribution, known as NDC 3.0, by December 2026.
According to ADB estimates, one urban electric bus in Tajikistan could reduce emissions by around 69 tons of CO₂ per year. An intercity electric bus could save 70 tons, a passenger electric car 4 tons, an electric taxi 8 tons, a light commercial electric vehicle for urban deliveries 10 tons, and a 40-ton electric truck up to 90 tons of CO₂ per year.
Existing fuel taxes already act like a carbon price
Tajikistan does not have a direct carbon tax. However, the ADB report recalculates existing gasoline and diesel taxes as an «implied carbon price.»
This does not mean a new tax has been introduced. Rather, it shows how much emissions already «cost» through the existing taxation or subsidization of fuel.
According to the report, Tajikistan’s implied carbon price in 2024 was 40 $ per ton of CO₂ for gasoline. For diesel, the figure was higher — 56 $ per ton of CO₂ in mid-2024.
How one cent per liter could become a climate fund
The ADB report also considers another possible mechanism: a climate cent fund.
Under this model, a small fee — for example, 0.01 $ per liter — would be charged on gasoline and diesel. The money collected would not go into the general budget, but would be directed to transport projects that reduce emissions.
For Tajikistan, the report’s authors based their calculation on 2023 fuel sales. That year, 962 million liters of gasoline and diesel were sold in the country.
According to their estimates, such a fund could help reduce transport emissions by about 0.4 million tons of CO₂ per year. This would be roughly 73% of Tajikistan’s estimated transport target under its national climate contribution, which the report puts at 0.5 million tons of CO₂.
However, the authors stress that the effect would not come from people immediately driving less because of a small increase in fuel prices. In the short term, demand for gasoline and diesel usually reacts weakly to price increases, because drivers and businesses often do not have quick alternatives.
The main purpose of such a fund would be to create a stable source of financing for specific projects: electric buses, charging stations, electric taxis, electric urban delivery vehicles and other lower-emission transport solutions.
At the same time, the idea is politically sensitive. Even a small fee could face resistance from drivers and businesses, especially transport companies, taxi drivers and others whose work depends on fuel.
That is why much would depend on transparency: how the money is spent, who manages it and whether people see practical results, such as new electric buses, better public transport or cleaner air.
Which transport projects could enter the carbon market
The ADB report also looks at international carbon market mechanisms, including Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement.
As of November 2025, Tajikistan had no projects on the preliminary list under this mechanism, including in the transport sector.
By comparison, transport projects linked to electric mobility have already been listed for China, Georgia, Pakistan and Uzbekistan.
The report identifies three of the most promising areas for carbon markets in transport: electric transport, urban public transport and railways.
Electric transport projects are generally easier to launch and verify. Emission reductions can be calculated more clearly, results can be tracked, and similar projects can be scaled up.
Public transport and railway projects can also be used in carbon markets, but they are usually more complex. They require longer preparation, larger investments and detailed monitoring.
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