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Russia Risks Being Left Out of Tightening India-China Relations

Russia Risks Being Left Out of Tightening India-China Relations
Moscow has long seen India and China as key players in its vision of a multipolar world. But recent events are pushing Beijing and New Delhi closer together, threatening to leave Russia on the sidelines.

United States President Donald Trump’s failure to make good on his signature campaign promise to swiftly end the Russo-Ukrainian war has seen him lash out at India — a supposed strategic Western partner — for not caring about the people being killed in Ukraine. According to American officials, India is a «Kremlin laundromat,»» not least since Russia’s share of total Indian energy imports surged from a measly 3% back in 2021 to 42% at present. Trade adviser Peter Navarro even said that «the road to peace runs through New Delhi,» knowing full well that if this is indeed the case, then the highway to peace almost certainly passes through Beijing. 

The problem is that punishing both China and India risks cultivating mutual resentment toward the U.S. while turbocharging their reconciliation. As such, the Trump administration ended up levying extortionate 50% tariffs on most Indian goods earlier this week, whereas China was effectively given a pass despite not just purchasing larger quantities of discounted Russian crude and liquified natural gas (LNG) but also providing Moscow with 80% of critical dual-use components needed to prosecute its war. Worse still, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made clear which side his country is rooting for when he reportedly informed EU High Representative Kaja Kallas last month that «Russia cannot be allowed to lose the war against Ukraine.»

India, on the other hand, has adopted a comparatively nuanced stance for the sake of staying true to its decades-old nonalignment doctrine. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi even told President Putin that «this is not an era of war» during their September 2022 meeting in Samarkand. Unlike Xi, Modi actually travelled to Kyiv a year ago to demonstrate that India has no dog in the Russia-Ukraine fight. 

Yet, for good reason, Trump concluded that making an example of India would serve as a warning shot to Beijing without incurring significant damage or blowback to the American economy. After all, China boasts a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) roughly five times that of its southern neighbor and an abundance of rare earth minerals and precious metals — not to mention a 361 $ billion trade surplus with the United States.

source: themoscowtimes.com

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