Mudflows keep coming: Which areas of Tajikistan need protection most?
Tajikistan is spending hundreds of millions of somoni on riverbank reinforcement and mudflow protection, yet destructive mudflows continue to damage homes, roads, irrigation canals and farmland. Many existing protective structures are in poor condition, while mountainous communities remain exposed to the threat. Which areas face the greatest risks, and what is being done to protect them?
In the first six months of 2026, Tajikistan recorded 741 natural emergencies, including 123 mudflow incidents, according to the Committee for Emergency Situations and Civil Defense.
Mudflows claimed seven of the 12 lives lost to natural disasters during this period. The total economic damage from natural emergencies reached 52.8 million somoni.
Behind these statistics are families who have lost their homes and livelihoods.
Following a devastating mudflow in Kulob in May, Umeda Halimova, a resident of Kulob, told Asia-Plus that her family had spent about two hours standing on a high fence in the rain as water rose around their home.
The house was left unsafe, while furniture, appliances, food and personal belongings were buried under mud.
Residents of Varzob have faced similar hardships. In 2024, Jamila Hoitova, a resident of Gulbogh, told Radio Ozodi that her family had managed to save only the clothes they were wearing.
According to her, residents repeatedly rebuild their homes, only to suffer further damage when new mudflows strike.
Mudflows also threaten agricultural infrastructure.
Zafarbek Davlatzoda, head of Tajikistan’s Agency for Land Reclamation and Irrigation, said that approximately 700,000 cubic meters of sediment had to be removed from an irrigation canal in Khurosоn district following a mudflow.
For farming communities, damaged canals mean not only expensive repairs but also disruptions to the water supply needed for crops.
Which areas face the greatest mudflow risks?
Although mudflows occur across much of Tajikistan’s mountainous territory, some areas are particularly vulnerable.
A study of natural hazards in Tajikistan identified 573 potential mudflow source zones, including 194 considered dangerous to infrastructure.
In Sughd province, the most vulnerable areas include the Moghiyandar, Shinga, Farob and Kshtut valleys in Panjakent district; Fondarya and Yaghnob in Ayni district; the Zeravshan River basin; and Ponghoz, Oshoba and Shaydon in Asht district.
In the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO), high-risk areas include the Vanj, Yazgulem, Bartang, Ghund and Shokhdara valleys.
The Panj, Yakhsou, Tairsu and Qizilsou river valleys in Khatlon province as well as the Kofarnihon valley in the central Tajikistanv are among the most vulnerable.
The study identifies settlements in the Bartang, Ghund, Shokhdara and Panj valleys as particularly exposed. Some villages are built directly on alluvial fans — areas where mudflows emerging from mountain tributaries can spread across the valley floor.
In the first six months of 2026, Tajikistan recorded 741 natural emergencies, including 123 mudflow incidents, according to the Committee for Emergency Situations and Civil Defense.
Mudflows claimed seven of the 12 lives lost to natural disasters during this period. The total economic damage from natural emergencies reached 52.8 million somoni.
Behind these statistics are families who have lost their homes and livelihoods.
Following a devastating mudflow in Kulob in May, Umeda Halimova, a resident of Kulob, told Asia-Plus that her family had spent about two hours standing on a high fence in the rain as water rose around their home.
The house was left unsafe, while furniture, appliances, food and personal belongings were buried under mud.
Residents of Varzob have faced similar hardships. In 2024, Jamila Hoitova, a resident of Gulbogh, told Radio Ozodi that her family had managed to save only the clothes they were wearing.
According to her, residents repeatedly rebuild their homes, only to suffer further damage when new mudflows strike.
Mudflows also threaten agricultural infrastructure.
Zafarbek Davlatzoda, head of Tajikistan’s Agency for Land Reclamation and Irrigation, said that approximately 700,000 cubic meters of sediment had to be removed from an irrigation canal in Khurosоn district following a mudflow.
For farming communities, damaged canals mean not only expensive repairs but also disruptions to the water supply needed for crops.
Which areas face the greatest mudflow risks?
Although mudflows occur across much of Tajikistan’s mountainous territory, some areas are particularly vulnerable.
A study of natural hazards in Tajikistan identified 573 potential mudflow source zones, including 194 considered dangerous to infrastructure.
In Sughd province, the most vulnerable areas include the Moghiyandar, Shinga, Farob and Kshtut valleys in Panjakent district; Fondarya and Yaghnob in Ayni district; the Zeravshan River basin; and Ponghoz, Oshoba and Shaydon in Asht district.
In the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO), high-risk areas include the Vanj, Yazgulem, Bartang, Ghund and Shokhdara valleys.
The Panj, Yakhsou, Tairsu and Qizilsou river valleys in Khatlon province as well as the Kofarnihon valley in the central Tajikistanv are among the most vulnerable.
The study identifies settlements in the Bartang, Ghund, Shokhdara and Panj valleys as particularly exposed. Some villages are built directly on alluvial fans — areas where mudflows emerging from mountain tributaries can spread across the valley floor.
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